![]() ![]() As water is churned and brought to the surface, the higher heat content could provide the chance for this storm to rapidly strengthen before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. As this area of interest drifts northwest - formed or not - it will have the opportunity to interact with exceptionally warm water not only at the surface but below in the northern part of the basin. 21, 2022, were tracking five systems in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Fiona and a disturbance heading into. Invest 98-L is forecast to move west across the Caribbean before turning to the northwest and into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Weather Outlookįorecast models are in tight agreement that this system will likely become the season’s next defined tropical system ahead of the weekend, likely forming in the Eastern Caribbean. The formation of this storm is something we're. 22, 2022) MONITORING 98L Please keep in mind this is a LONG RANGE set of spaghetti models over a 9-day period. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday. Invest 98L Long Range Spaghetti Models (from Sept. mainland we've had this hurricane season.' The system was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Thursday. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea late this week. USA TODAY 0:00 2:12 'This is the most significant threat for the U.S. The system continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days. It will rapidly develop, as well as affecting Cuba and Yucatan. There’s a 80 chance that it will strike the Caribbean within the next week. It shows the different paths a storm may take, but neither is it a crystal ball. Now that we are clear about what Spaghetti Invest 98L terms stands for, let us look at the potential areas it might impact. Spaghetti models are a combination of different model ensembles. As of the evening update from the agency, that potential is up to a high 70% chance by Thursday and a likely 90% chance by Sunday.Ī tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. An example of a spaghetti model showing possible paths the developing tropical system currently known as Invest 98-L could take. Invest 98L spaghetti models for Caribbean 10am Sept 22 Long-range computer forecasts are often plotted in what is called a 'spaghetti model. General consensus early next week toward a pocket of deep, warm water in the north basin /nsmgmDvfBy- Shel Winkley September 21, 2022ĭevelopment odds have rapidly increased on a disturbance that has been given the title “Invest 98L” a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. High confidence of where it heads in the Caribbean (formed or not) through the week. Evening update from Odds turn high for tropical development of #98L between now & Thursday ![]()
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